Tropical Storm Francine, which was churning off the Texas Gulf Coast on Tuesday, was expected to grow more powerful and reach hurricane status later in the day before moving over Louisiana's shore on Wednesday.
"The storm is starting to get its act together," AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex Dasilva said, adding that the high water temperatures in the Gulf were serving as "rocket fuel" for the system.
Francine picked up speed as it was moving northeast away from the Texas coast at about 9 mph, but it was maintaining sustained wind speeds of 65 mph, about 10 mph below hurricane strength, the National Hurricane Center said.
Francine was expected to make landfall over the central Louisiana coast late Wednesday afternoon with a potentially deadly storm surge and up to a foot of rainfall and then move into Mississippi and northward into the Mississippi valley on Thursday.
Regardless of the wind speeds at landfall, Francine is still a large storm with significant potential for life-threatening storm surge and flooding, forecasters warned.
Strengthening was expected as Francine moves over the warm waters of the Gulf, but as it approaches a front along the coast on Wednesday, powerful winds are likely to shear off its cloud tops and prevent further strengthening, the hurricane center said. Sustained winds of 90-95 mph are forecast at landfall, and gusts of up to 115 mph possible.
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who previously declared a state of emergency, urged residents to "get a game plan, listen to local officials and follow your local news" to help minimize Francine's impact. Parts of the state may face a storm surge of anywhere from 5-10 feet, depending on the area, with widespread flooding and up to a foot of rain in isolated locations.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in some coastal communities in Texas and Louisiana. Some schools were closed, and sandbags were being distributed ahead of what was expected to be widespread flooding.
At 2 p.m. ET Tuesday the storm was centered 130 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and 380 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana. Francine was heading northeast at 9 mph.
Developments:
∎ In Louisiana, a shelter for LaFourche Parish residents was opening at 5 p.m. local time. Residents were urged to bring at least two days’ worth of food, water, medicine and bedding.
∎ A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, the National Weather Service said.
∎ A significant storm surge is expected, and water will begin to rise along the coast Wednesday morning.
∎ Swells generated by Francine are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline Tuesday and Wednesday.
∎ Energy companies began evacuating offshore workers at several production platforms and curbing production ahead of the storm.
∎ All inbound traffic was suspended at the Port of Galveston and the Port of New Orleans was expected to be closed on Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Francine:Storm approaching the US
Rick Momin works at Bayaks Country Store in coastal Cameron Parish, which was devastated by two hurricanes just four years ago. Cameron may be in for another devastating storm strike, but Momin says he likes living in the area for the fishing and lifestyle and is ready for the storm.
"I know that every year somebody is going to get hit, so we have to take what comes," said Momin, 49. "It is Mother Nature. We live by the coast and it's coming."
The hurricane center advises:
“Conditions along the coastline in Louisiana and in the storm surge and hurricane warning areas are going to deteriorate very quickly Wednesday morning,” Michael Brennan, hurricane center director, said. “Water is going to start to rise along the coast. Rains are going to begin, tropical storm-force winds are going to begin.”
Brennan advises residents and visitors to be in a safe place to ride out the storm by Tuesday night, then shelter in place on Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.
Thanks in part to unusually warm seawater in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine could undergo what meteorologists call "rapid intensification," when a storm increases its wind speed by at least 35 mph within 24 hours. The hurricane center's latest forecast said sustained winds of 90-95 mph are possible near the storm center. However, the center cautions people to prepare for one category higher than forecast, which could bring 100 mph winds over the coast.
While there's plenty of warm water for intensification, strong winds aloft are expected to increase, which could limit further strengthening, the hurricane center said in an online forecast Tuesday morning. "The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine's strengthening."
Still, Francine is expected to douse much of Louisiana an Mississippi with 4 to 8 inches of rain, and some areas could face a foot of rain through Friday morning that "could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding."
Francine is predicted to make landfall west of New Orleans, then potentially move over or near Lake Pontchartrain, bringing tropical storm conditions and up to eight inches of rainfall across the region, the hurricane center said. The worst conditions are likely to occur on in New Orleans on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as late morning Wednesday, then continue to increase, said meteorologist Lauren Nash, with the weather service office in New Orleans. Winds will start to decrease after midnight, Nash said.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph and "more than a month’s worth of rain" were possible, AccuWeather warned. Up to 5 feet of storm surge could also cause flooding along Lake Pontchartrain.
The office warned that residents should complete preparations by Tuesday night.
"The weather will get worse overnight and continue to worsen through Wednesday," the office tweeted − with the silver lining of improving conditions Thursday.
"There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines," the hurricane center advisory warned, adding that evacuation orders could result. "Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana."
Parts of Louisiana were bracing for torrential rains and high winds. Storm surge combined with high tides could push water levels in some areas 10 feet above ground, the weather service warned.
Parts of southwest Louisiana are still recovering from the double disaster in 2020 imposed by Hurricanes Laura and, six weeks later, Hurricane Delta. The two storms combined to kill at least 49 people in the U.S. and Caribbean and caused more than $20 billion in damage, most of it in Louisiana. Laura made landfall near Cameron, where forecasters say Francine may crash onto land.
In Lake Charles, 50 miles north of Cameron, just days ago a 22-story skyscraper damaged beyond repair by the hurricanes was taken down during a planned demolition. The Hertz Tower had been the city's tallest building.
Brennan discussed these cautions during a Tuesday briefing:
Francine is the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first since Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20.
The system is one of three the hurricane center is watching. Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours. A storm farther to the east has a 70% chance of development over the next week.
Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY; Reuters
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