TAMPA, Fla. − Hurricane Milton weakened slightly Tuesday but remained an extremely powerful storm that could double in size before slamming into west-central Florida late Wednesday.
"Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida," John Cangialosi, a specialist with the National Hurricane Center, warned in an update Tuesday. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone, he said.
Milton had undergone stunningly rapid intensification Monday, its sustained winds reaching 180 mph. By Tuesday those winds were at 150, still a fierce Category 4 storm. Fluctuations in the storm's strength were expected as it closes in on the coast, Cangialosi said.
Gov. Ron DeSantis told Florida residents in the path of Milton that "time is running out" before landfall, likely as a Category 3 storm.
"There's no guarantee what the weather's going to be like starting Wednesday morning," DeSantis said at a briefing Tuesday. "You may have a window where it may be safe, but you may not. So use today as your day to finalize and execute the plan that is going to protect you and your family."
Hurricane warning maps show Florida blanketed in red and orange alerts.
"Basically, the entire peninsula portion of Florida is under some type of either watch or warning," DeSantis said.
Milton's path updates:Hurricane Milton tracker
Developments
∎ Milton was centered about 520 miles southwest of Tampa on Tuesday, rolling east-northeast at 12 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later Tuesday and continue through Thursday, the hurricane center said in an update.
∎ Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, were expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday, the hurricane center said. "Life-threatening" flooding was possible.
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Closer look at Milton's path:How the storm is unfolding
Once Hurricane Milton roars across Florida on Thursday, the U.S. might see at least a temporary break in the storm parade, forecasters say. As of Tuesday, other than Milton and distant Tropical Storm Leslie, there are no named storms anywhere in the Atlantic basin, which includes storms in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Leslie will wander around the central Atlantic for the next several days before "degenerating into a remnant low" by the weekend. As for Milton, once it crosses Florida, all forecasts show it weakening and heading out to sea away from land by the end of the week.
Two other weather disturbances are also being monitored for potential tropical development, the hurricane center said. One, near the east coast of Florida, could briefly start to form, but "upper-level winds are likely to increase later in the week, which should limit further development," the hurricane center said. Another disturbance is about to emerge off the coast of Africa, and some "limited development" is possible as it spins across the eastern Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week.
− Doyle Rice
Forecasters expect fluctuations in wind speeds until Milton reaches the coast as the hurricane undergoes potential "eyewall replacement cycles" such as the one that happened overnight. Eyewall replacement is a natural process that takes place at the center of strong hurricanes. A secondary “eye” develops inside a storm further away from the existing eyewall in the core of the storm. Eventually a new eyewall forms.
The replacement cycle can steal heat generation from the center, said James Franklin, a retired branch chief for the hurricane center. Winds begin to broaden and spread out to match the areas where heat is being released, and a new eyewall forms.
The cycles can cause the most intense winds at the center of the storm to fluctuate higher or lower, which may bounce a storm back and forth from one category of wind speeds to another. Milton completed an eyewall replacement cycle overnight Monday and the new eye quickly contracted down in size by almost half, Robbie Berg, one of the center’s hurricane specialists, wrote in an 11 a.m. forecast discussion.
The replacement cycles also can cause a storm to grow larger. Hence, the hurricane center warned Tuesday that Milton could double in size before landfall overnight Wednesday.
President Joe Biden warned Tuesday that Hurricane Milton could be one of the worst storms to hit Florida in a century and urged anyone under an evacuation order to leave “now, now, now.”
“It’s a matter of life and death,” he said.
Vice President Kamala Harris in an appearance on "The View" urged Floridians in the path of the storm to listen to their local officials.
"If they're telling you to evacuate, get your stuff and go," Harris said. "Whatever they're telling you."
− Michael Collins and Francesca Chambers
Depending on where Hurricane Milton lands, the Tampa Bay area could be flooded with a huge storm surge − or it could have its bay sucked dry of water. Reverse storm surge – which exposes sand, silt and debris typically covered by water – is possible in Florida because of Milton, and Tampa Bay is especially vulnerable, experts say.
It could happen this week if Milton makes landfall to the south of Tampa Bay, said WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut. Storm surge happens as a tropical storm or hurricane pushes water toward the coast, triggering catastrophic flooding along the shore and in bays and inlets. With reverse storm surge, especially in larger storms, the opposite happens, explained AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in 2022, after Ian hit. The result is bare ground in some places, particularly along the shoreline, according to Pastelok.
“It can pull the water out because the wind flow is coming from land to ocean,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”
− Doyle Rice
'Reverse storm surge':How Hurricane Milton could flood Tampa Bay or shockingly dry it
Near the Tampa Bay Marina, Nancy Heidt, 80, watched Tuesday as her son continued clearing debris left by Helene. The storm shoved floodwater into her single-story home fronting the bay, ruining most everything but the tile floor of the kitchen and living room. Workers had already cut out several feet of drywall around the entire house to help halt the growth of black mold, which flourishes in humid post-hurricane conditions.
A large rolloff Dumpster sat in the driveway, overflowing with drywall debris, ruined food and broken appliances.Similar scenes played out around the neighborhood as homeowners, friends and contractors continued Helene cleanup while also trying to board up for Milton.
As his mom watched, Scott Heidt, 55, was “playing Tetris” in the garage with her few undamaged belongings and trying to prepare for even worse flooding.
“We had four feet of flooding from the last one,” he said. “If we get 12 feet from this one, we’re toast.”
Nancy Heidt said she had lived in the house for 50 years and although the area had seen many hurricanes, Helene was the single worst one she’d ever experienced. And the forecasts are for Milton to hit even harder.
She said she doesn’t have flood insurance but is thankful her deceased husband had set her up financially.“I beat cancer. I beat having a broken hip,” she said. “I’m still fighting.”
Suzanne Vale and her husband say they feel haunted by storms. Late last month, they left their home in Burnsville, North Carolina, a mountain town outside Asheville, and drove to their home in Dunedin, just west of Tampa, to prepare it for Helene. But after Helene made landfall, it was their residence in North Carolina that was under threat. A tree had fallen on the roof and a nearby hillside collapsed.
Now, as Milton approaches Florida, the couple has been fortifying their home in Dunedin, which sits three blocks from the Gulf of Mexico, while contacting geotechnical engineers about damage to their Burnsville home.
“I am completely overwhelmed,” Vale told USA TODAY. “God is testing my patience.”
Much of Dunedin is still littered with debris and furniture cleared out of homes flooded by Helene. And as people rush to buy gas, water and other supplies, there is a palpable sense of anxiety and panic in the air, said Vale, a retired nurse.
“We bought the place up there so we would have a place to go if we lost our place in Florida,” Vale said. “Now we've got two places that are going to be wrecked.”
− Christopher Cann
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell pushed back against former President Donald Trump’s false claims about the recovery efforts following Hurricane Helene and indicated she was disappointed in the misinformation he was spreading.
Trump has spread baseless claims of hurricane relief efforts, including allegations that there are “no helicopters, no rescue” in North Carolina and that the federal government is only giving $750 to those who have lost their homes. FEMA has addressed misinformation on its webpage and social media.
When asked about whether she thinks Trump is playing politics with the hurricane response, Criswell said in a press call Tuesday, “as it relates to the rumors…I'm frankly disappointed that we're still having to have this conversation.”
− Sudiksha Kochi
FEMA administrator pushes back:Rejects Trump claims on hurricane recovery efforts
At the Middleton High School shelter in Tampa, a frustrated Bill Brotherton, 70, signed up to stay for the storm’s duration. With his eclectus parrot Mikey perched atop his shoulder, Brotherton said he had four feet of flooding at his house from Helene, which also ruined several prized vehicles. He’s been sleeping in his car ever since.Monday night, he left his car parked at the nearby Tampa airport and on Tuesday morning caught a ride over to the shelter, where he planned to ride out the storm.“It’s so overwhelming I can barely speak. I can’t think. I can’t spell. I’m having chest pains,” he said, tears welling in his eyes. “I go to sleep and I don’t want to wake up but I keep waking up.”
Storm surge of up to 15 feet was forecast for Sarasota, Tampa and other west-central areas. Evacuations were underway in at least 16 counties, and state officials suspended tolls and opened road shoulders to traffic. State troopers were escorting gasoline tankers into the Tampa area to ensure evacuees had enough gas to leave.
Northbound traffic on I-95 on the state's east coast was steady and rest areas were packed with Floridians, who chatted about the hurricane as they stretched their legs and walked dogs, some explaining they’d crossed the state to avoid the gridlock on Interstate 75. Many hotels were sold out through Georgia and into South Carolina.
Shelters were open in all 67 Florida counties as authorities urged residents of evacuation zones not to attempt to ride out the storm.
“I can say without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas you’re gonna die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN.
Less than 48 hours before Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall on Florida’s west coast, resources are pouring into the state to address inevitable power outages and rescue missions. DeSantis said nearly 40,000 electrical line repairmen are in Florida to turn the power back on after Milton sweeps through. Many of the linemen came from as far as California, DeSantis said.
Before landfall, 8,000 National Guard members will be activated in Florida, DeSantis said. Fuel will be sent to gas stations around the clock, he said, adding that state authorities are collaborating with oil truck operators for Walmart, Shell and other companies.
“We’ve never had this many resources prior to a storm,” DeSantis said.
− Claire Thornton
Hurricane specialist John Morales broke down on-air as he was discussing the threat of Hurricane Milton on a local south Florida TV station. The "extremely dangerous" storm is a Category 4 hurricane expected to make landfall this week in the state.
"I apologize," he said through tears. "This is just horrific."
Mental health professionals sympathized with Morales' position; being the bearer of bad news isn't easy. But they commended his bravery of sharing his grief on air, as it could help others prepare for the storm as well as begin to process grief of their own. The full forecaster story is here.
− David Oliver
As evacuees drove north or east, other people prepared to remain in Tampa during Milton’s passage. At the Pizzo K-8 school on the University of Southern Florida campus in East Tampa, about 100 people had already signed up to sleep in the makeshift dormitory areas, supervised by dozens of police officers and county workers.Arrivals were screened for COVID-19 and other illnesses, and workers handed out paperwork explaining shelter rules, including that all services and food were free, and that mental-health experts were available to talk.A shelter manager said nine shelters were open already with many more set to open around Hillsborough County based on need.
Nearly 700 U.S. flights were canceled early Tuesday and more than 1,500 are already canceled for Wednesday, according to flight-tracking website FlightAware. Carriers including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have issued waivers allowing travelers going to or from some Florida airports to change their tickets for no extra charge. Customers can check their airline’s website for specific details on travel advisories.
Tampa Interional Airport suspended flight operations Tuesday, and authorties said it would "reopen when safe to do so."
Under Department of Transportation rules, anyone whose flight was canceled is eligible for a refund. However, they aren't entitled to any compensation for delays since weather is outside airline control. Full story on flight cancellations here.
− Eve Chen
Hurricane Milton's impact on flights:What to expect from your airline.
Ahead of a mandatory evacuation order for those in Marco Island, south of Naples, some condominiums were putting sandbags near doors ahead of a potential storm surge. Residents in low-lying areas were urged to prepare their homes and move to higher ground by Tuesday afternoon, the Marco Island officials said on social media, citing rainfall and tides that could also contribute to flooding.
Two years ago, during Hurricane Ian, Marco Island saw an 8-foot storm surge on average and damage to 304 residential buildings and 63 commercial buildings, according to local reports. Around Collier County, a series of shelters were set to open Tuesday afternoon, including one for those who require nursing care, authorities said. Marco Island Executive Airport was set to close Tuesday at 7 p.m.
Farther north, Southwest Florida International Airport was operating Tuesday but saw dozens of cancellations of flights scheduled for departure or arrival at the airport, according to FlightAware. The airport, located near Fort Myers, planned to shut down Wednesday and Thursday.
− Chris Kenning
Hurricane Milton could be significantly altered by wind shear, a mixed blessing. The strength of the storm, its wind speeds and the breadth of its storm surge all will depend on whether winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico will be strong enough to break up its structure. If the winds Milton encounters as it approach Florida are strong enough to disrupt its inner core, the storm's most intense winds could weaken a little, said James Franklin, a retired branch chief for the hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center.
At the same time, the hurricane could grow in size and push more water onto shore in a surge of seawater, Franklin said. When the wind shear is strong enough, "it’s essentially blowing the top off the hurricane." Read the full story on wind shear.
− Dinah Voyles Pulver
Bigger or stronger?How winds will shape Hurricane Milton on Tuesday.
Across the region, supplies were already running low, especially fuel. In Lakeland, about 30 miles inland of Tampa, drivers were waiting in line at multiple gas stations to fuel up, and some stations had already run out. The fuel-price tracking app GasBuddy showed many Tampa-area stations closed.In a Lakeland Walmart, workers hurriedly stocked shelves with Gatorade and snacks, and the store was sold out of toilet paper and cases of bottled water. Many stores, including Starbucks, posted signs that they would close Tuesday night to give their workers time to prepare for Milton.
Streams of customers and hurricane preppers filled big-box retailers in Manatee County ahead of Hurricane Milton. East Bradenton resident Karen Tonkin Wakefield made stops Monday at the Lowe's Home Improvement Store and an Aldi Grocery store in Parrish for her final preparations.
"I've lived here since 1982. I have two homes in Parrish and I'm just getting a few last-minute things," Wakefield said. "I'm feeling OK, not panicking because we had a lot left from the last one (Hurricane Helene) just a couple of weeks ago." Read more on Hurricane Milton prep.
− Samantha Gholar, Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Read the full story:Hurricane Milton prep continues in Florida
Milton, the rapidly developing hurricane that shows no signs of stopping, won’t technically become a Category 6 because the category doesn't currently exist. But the storm could reach the level of a hypothetical Category 6 − and further stir debate about whether the National Hurricane Center’s long-used scale for classifying hurricane wind speeds from Category 1 to 5 might need an overhaul.
If Milton had reached wind speeds of 192 mph, it would have surpass a threshold that just five hurricanes and typhoons have reached since 1980, according to Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Jim Kossin, a retired federal scientist and science advisor at the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
The pair authored a study looking at whether the extreme storms could become the basis of a Category 6 hurricane denomination. All five of the storms occurred over the previous decade. Kossin and Wehner said they weren’t proposing adding a Category 6 to the wind scale but were trying to “inform broader discussions” about communicating the growing risks in a warming world.
— Dinah Voyles Pulver and Michael Loria, USA TODAY
Read the full story:Could Milton become a Category 6?
Fed by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton became the third-fastest intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said, as the storm surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. Its path from west to east was also unusual, as Gulf hurricanes typically form in the Caribbean Sea and make landfall after traveling west and turning north.
"It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the western coast of Florida," said Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University. "This has big implications since the track of the storm plays a role in determining where the storm surge will be the largest."
Contributing: Jim Rosica, Tallahassee Democrat; Reuters
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