Entering the 10th season of the College Football Playoff, 14 teams have made the Final Four. Although three newcomers have gotten to the playoff the past two years (Michigan, TCU, Cincinnati), there is still a repetitive feeling concerning the top four teams that meet up in the semifinals.

As usual, go ahead and pencil in the SEC and the Big Ten winner for two of the four slots, and because playoff expansion is a year away, there isn’t much room for error for those vying for the other two positions.

But surprises do happen. Here are six teams that could break through and secure their first College Football Playoff appearance.

Southern California

Lincoln Riley’s second season in the Land of Troy got off to its usual start, with returning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams picking up where he left off in 2022, carving up San Jose State’s defense with 278 yards and four touchdowns in a season-opening 56-28 win. The defense, while playing decent at times, gave up seven plays of 20 or more yards. Just like at his previous stop at Oklahoma, where the defense cost the Sooners multiple opportunities at championships, the Trojans know their title hopes rest on the ability to stop opponents, which is something they didn’t do at the end of last season in two losses to Utah and another to Tulane. Before jetting off to the Big Ten in 2024, USC hopes to break a two-decade title drought with another opportunistic defense and more magic from Williams.

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Penn State

Penn State’s road to any title shot starts with navigating its division. The non-conference schedule isn’t even worth mentioning, but with Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan on the schedule, there is no room for error. Olumuyiwa Fashanu anchors the line with quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton capable of providing big plays. The defense is coming off a 42-sack season and should be a strength of the team again. The Nittany Lions are set up for at least a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl and to at least change the narrative of consistent underachieving.

Utah

The two-time Pac-12 champions could have been in the playoff last year if several plays went their way. Their four losses in 2022 came by an average of 7.5 points, and Cameron Rising, though recovering from a knee injury, is back for his third year leading the offense. Although Utah needs to replace leading receiver Dalton Kincaid, tight end Brant Kuithe and wide receiver Devaughn Vele are more than capable of picking up the slack, and the defense returns eight starters from a unit that ranked in the top 30 nationally in points and yards allowed. The September schedule sets up for Utah to make some noise or could be its ultimate downfall, with Florida and UCLA at home and Baylor and up-and-coming Oregon State on the road.

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Tennessee

The Volunteers offense is now in the hands of Joe Milton, who has all the physical attributes needed to get the job done. Many expect that side of the ball to pick up where they left off last year: leading the nation in total offense. But replacing Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman at receiver is easier said than done, even with the talent at the position, and there are questions about the offensive line depth. The defense will be the key, as Tennessee couldn’t stop anyone last year, primarily through the air (127th in passing defense). They need to shore up those deficiencies if they want to join the final four and get past Georgia, which comes to Knoxville this season, and Florida, where they haven’t won since 2003.  

Texas

The question must be asked, even though it is getting tiresome at this point. Is this the year that Texas is back? The SEC awaits next season, but for 2023, there is plenty of intrigue in Austin to see if Steve Sarkisian’s team can back up the hype. The talent is there to get the Longhorns back in the national hunt, and the schedule is manageable, especially if somehow the Longhorns can go to Tuscaloosa and score a victory against Alabama. The truth is that anything less than a Big 12 championship in their last year in the conference will be viewed as a disappointment. The jury is still out on that since they haven’t won a league title in 14 years. All eyes will be on whoever is quarterbacking Texas; in this case, it starts with Quinn Ewers. He will be playing behind an offensive line bringing back all five starters and will have dangerous pieces at the skill positions.  

Tulane

Coming off the biggest win in school history against USC in the Cotton Bowl, the Green Wave hopes the next step is breaking up the playoff. The Green Wave are bolstered by counterparts Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida moving on to the more lucrative Big 12. Luckily, they have quarterback Michael Pratt (3,009 passing yards, 37 total TDs) returning. Coach Willie Fritz must find answers for holes at receiver and the front seven of the defense and he must find a way to replace the production of RB Tyjae Spears. Unless serious chaos happens, the schedule won’t present enough challenges to make Tulane a real playoff threat. Still, an undefeated run is possible, especially if Tulane beats Ole Miss in Week 2.