Paul Silva still thinks the notion is unbelievable.

His 7-year-old daughter, Katheryne, recently noticed her favorite Christmas decoration, a surprise early gift, was missing outside their home in Antioch, California.

"She said, 'Santa's gone,'" Silva told USA TODAY about the Dec. 2 incident. "I thought my uncle, who lives with us and likes to play around, was pulling a prank on us, but he said he didn't do it."

So Silva, an electrician, checked his surveillance videos. He was shocked to see a man get out of a Chevy Impala, run to his driveway and steal the 6-foot Santa from the front porch. The person stuffs the decoration into a trunk opened by the car's driver and, with Santa's legs sticking out, they speed away.

The theft left his his daughter "devastated and scared," Silva said, who along with his wife Maria, set up Christmas lights and decorations the outside of the house they moved into almost a year ago.

"At first, we were hesitant. We kept asking ourselves, 'Should we put it out there?'" Silva said. "But then I told my wife, 'Aw, let’s put it out there. I mean, who’s going to steal a Santa?'"

The episode, and ones like it, spark debate on whether houses decorated in the holiday spirit are targets for would-be criminals, especially during December, the height of when porch pirates are looking for items left outside of homes, experts say. Last year, about 21.2 billion parcels were shipped across the United States, a slight decrease from 21.6 billion in 2021, the highest volume recorded in the last seven years, according to consumer researcher Statista.

"It’s definitely the season for thefts and break-ins," said Wes Fox, CEO of United Defense Tactical, a self-defense training center in Costa Mesa, California. "While this is one of the most joyous times of the year, this is also one of the heaviest crime seasons as well. Homes, inside and outside, are targets."

Citing FBI statistics, theft and larceny increased by about 38% nationwide between 2021 and 2022 after a decade of stats trending downward, according to Corie Wagner, a senior research editor at Security.org, a consumer-oriented research website.

Although not broken out separately, package theft stats would fit into that category, Wagner said. She's also noticed police departments across the country are doing more public service announcements this month about protecting packages.

Regarding holiday decorations being stolen, some thieves either want to resell them or keep them for themselves, said Ben Stickle, a criminal justice professor at Middle Tennessee State University. Some thieves may want to steal the copper wiring inside of some decorations with lights, Stickle said.

A year ago, the average daily trading price for copper was almost at $5 per pound, said Stickle, who has written extensively on metal scrapping. This year, the copper trading price hovers near $4 per pound as demand for the metal remains, Stickle added.

"Anytime you put something of value on your front yard, whether it's kids leaving their bicycles or fancy Christmas decorations, it increases the likelihood that it can easily be taken," said Stickle, a former police officer in Bowling Green, Kentucky. "Criminals aren’t stupid, they are smart enough to respond to incentives. If they see value in something, they are going to try to take it."

'Be smart about your security'

Decoratively lit homes, especially during Christmastime, are typically seen as deterrents for thieves, said Matt Martoccio, a longtime landscape lighting designer and co-founder of The Christmas Guys, an Albany, New York-based company that sets up holiday decorations for homes and businesses. He believes most thieves would rather operate unseen.

"There's so much traffic in front of decorative homes that I don’t think it would be wise for a criminal to even try it," said Martoccio, who estimates his company hangs up more than 1 million holiday lights a year. "I have a big display at my house, but I have cameras everywhere, too."

Jeff Kutas, founder and CEO of MB Sentinel, whose Stephenville, Texas-based company makes anti-theft devices to combat porch piracy at homes, believes that those who have festive decor outside their homes might find themselves at a "higher risk" of being targeted.

"Many criminals use porch piracy as a test run to burglary, using the attempt as a way to begin to case the home," Kutas said. "When you combine this data point with packages piling up on the doorstep and ongoing deliveries, it becomes obvious that the home may have a treasure trove of consumer electronics and other expensive gifts inside."  

Having a decorative house outside for Christmas, especially in the age of online shopping, makes them appealing to some criminals, Ben Michael, a criminal defense attorney based in Austin, Texas, said in an email to USA TODAY.

"The more you decorate, the more inviting your house becomes to would-be thieves. However, this doesn't mean that you need to tone it down or not decorate at all," Michael said in an email. "Just be smart about your security."

Security first

Although the experts differ on whether outdoor Christmas lighting and decorations make some houses a target for thieves, they agree homes should have a security plan.

A home security system could include cameras and a video doorbell system, as well as other software that can track your packages en route for delivery, Stickle said. He also advised getting porch lock delivery boxes and having a network of neighbors working together to look out for package deliveries.

"We all need to do better to keep our packages out of sight," Stickle said. "If thieves don't see it, they're likely not to steal it."

'We won’t let them ruin our season'

While police still haven't recovered their stolen Santa, Silva said he's found a silver lining resulting from the theft. After word spread and local news outlets reported about the incident, Silva was surprised when a fellow Antioch resident appeared on his doorstep with a 7-foot Santa.

"The woman said she heard about us and she didn’t even want to take pictures or anything," Silva said. "She just wanted my little girl to be happy."

Silva said he's since received three more Santa decorations from strangers. He said his wife is relieved from all of the support – she felt the theft was going to put a damper on celebrating her birthday on Dec. 5.

"All of the negative feelings are gone," Silva said. "We won't let them ruin our season."

Silva said his daughter, who cried constantly and worried someone might break into their home since the theft, is also happy. Silva added he's met more of his neighbors since the incident, including one who had two outdoor Nutcracker decorations she thinks were stolen by the same thieves.

"Look out for your neighbors," he said. "Protect yourself and your loved ones."

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